| Great progress has been made in mathematical models of
cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little
impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health
decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This
presentation provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary
differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. I
discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it
can be modified to test different hypotheses, including the
importance of asymptomatic or inapparent infections, and
hyperinfectious V. cholerae and human-to-human transmission.
I highlight three important challenges of cholera models: (1) model
misspecification and parameter uncertainty, (2) modeling the impact
of water, sanitation and hygiene interventions and (3) model
structure. I use published models, especially those related to the
2010 Haitian outbreak as examples. I emphasize that the choice of
models should be dictated by the research questions in mind. More
collaboration is needed between policy-makers, epidemiologists and
modelers in public health. |