Mathematical Biology Seminar Abstract
Mar 18, 2015
Jing Chen
University of Miami, Department of Mathematics
11:00 am in MSB 318

Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China

Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China. In the last 20 years or so, rural communities and areas in Mainland China invaded by rabies are gradually and significantly enlarged. Dogs are the main infection source, which contribute 85%-95% of human cases in China. Some provinces such as Shaanxi and Shanxi, used to be rabies free, have increasing numbers of human infections cases now. Recent phylogeographical analyses of rabies virus clades indicate that the human rabies cases in different and geographically unconnected provinces in China are epidemiologically related. In order to investigate how the movement of dogs changes the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model for the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number will be discussed and calculated, and how the moving rates of dogs between patches affect the basic reproduction number will be studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages observed in the phylogeographical analyses, the two-patch model will be used to simulate the human rabies data to study the inter-provincial spread of rabies between Guangxi and Guizhou, Fujian and Hebei and Sichuan and Guizhou, respectively. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog market and trade need to be regulated and transportation of dogs need to be better monitored and under constant surveillance.